Bu çalışmada, fiyatları rejim değiştiren geometrik Brown
hareketi gösteren temettüsüz hisse senetleri
incelenmektedir. Bir hissenin cari fiyatı göz önüne
alındığında, satış karinesi bir hedef fiyat ve bir zararı
durdurma limitinden oluşur. Fiyat hedef fiyata veya
belirlenen zararı durdurma limitine ulaştığında "satış"
kararı verilir. Esas amaç, yatırımcılara fayda sağlamaktır.
Yatırımcılar, finansal kariyerlerinde sıklıkla zayıf bir
hisse senedi alırlar veya satın alma işlemi yanlış zamanda
yapılabilir. Bu nedenle, kayıpları durdurmak için böyle bir
hisse senedini mümkün olan en kısa sürede satmak gerekir.
Uygulamada, hedef fiyatlar tipik olarak %15 - %55'lik bir
kazanç civarındadır ve zararı durdurma limitleri genellikle
%5 ila %20 arasında değişmektedir. Ancak, her hisse
senedinin farklı özelliklere sahip olması nedeniyle,
muhasebe kar ve zararları için tek tip kurallar benimsemek
iyi bir fikir değildir. Ayrıca her hisse senedine farklı
tasfiye kuralları ile farklı muamele edilmelidir.
Hedef fiyatları ve zararı durdurma limitlerini dikkate alır
ve beklenen bir ödül fonksiyonunu yükseltmeyi vaat edenleri
belirleriz. Bu fiyat limitlerini elde etmeyi hedefleriz.
Ayrıca, beklenen bir hedef dönem ve para kazanma ve kaybetme
olasılığını belirleriz. Uygulamada, portföylerin
performansını ölçmek için sıklıkla kullanılan bir kriter,
belirli bir zaman içindeki getiri yüzdesidir. Bununla
birlikte, böyle bir kriter, kısa bir elde tutma döneminde
(τ0) küçük karlar elde etmeyi teşvik eder. Açıktır ki, böyle
bir kriter, özellikle alım satım ve ek işlem maliyetlerini
sürekli izleyemeyenler olmak üzere bireysel yatırımcılar
için uygun değildir. Buna karşın, bir iskonto faktörü, elde
tutma süresinin belirleyicisi olarak zamanın yerini aldığı
için işlemlerin sıklığını azaltır. İskonto uygulanmış ödül
fonksiyonu birçok finansal problemde yaygın olarak karşımıza
çıkar.
In current study, we have a non-dividend single stock whose
price
observesexhibits1 a regime-2switching geometric Brownian motion. Given the
current price of a stock the selling
axiomprinciple consists
of target price and a stop-loss limit. A ‘sell’ decision is
made when the price reaches either the target price or the
set stop-loss limit.
The main purpose is to benefit investors.
During their financial career,
Oneinvestors often
picks
up the badweak stocks
or
thea purchase made is
at the wrong time. Therefore, it is necessary to sell it as
soon as possible to stop losses3. In practice, a target price is typically around a
gain of 15%–55% and stop-loss limits generally vary from 5%
to 20%. It is, however, not a good idea to adopt uniform
profit taking. Each stock is different, it has own
characteristics4. Moreover, each stock should be treated
differently with different liquidation rules.
In this study, we consider sets of target prices and
stop-loss limits and
choose target prices and stop-loss limitsdetermine those
5that promise to enhance an expected reward function.
We aim at deriving these price limits. In addition, we
determine the expected target period and the probability of
making and losing money. In practice, a frequent used
criteriacriterion for
measuring the performance of portfolios is the percentage
return per unit time. However, such a criterion leads to
many transactions because of it encourages small
profit-taking within short holding
timeperiod6 (τ0). Clearly, such a
criteria criterion is not
suitable for retail investors, especially those who are
unable to constantly monitor trading and additional
transaction costs. A discount factor, in contrast, rules out
very frequent transactions as it replaces time as the
determinant of holding
timeperiod. This discounted-reward function is
natural common7 in many financial problems.
1In current study, we have a non-dividend single stock
whose price observes
exhibits2 a
uregime-3switching geometric Brownian motion.
Given the current price of a stock,4 the selling
axiomprinciple consists
of target price and a stop-loss limit. A ‘sell’ decision is
made when the price reaches either the target price or the
set stop-loss limit.
The main purpose is to benefit investors.
During their financial careercareers,
Oneinvestors often
picks
up
the badweak stocks
or
thea
purchase
made is it at the wrong
time. Therefore,
in both the cases, it is
often wise and
necessary to sell
itsuch a stock as
soon as possible to
stopcurtail losses5. In practice,
a target
price isprices are
typically around a gain of 15%–55% and stop-loss limits
generally vary from 5% to 20%.
ItHowever, it is,
however,
not a good idea to adopt uniform
profit taking. Each stock is different, it rules for booking profits and losses because each stock
has its own
characteristics6. Moreover, each stock should be treated differently
with7 that call for different liquidation rules.
In this study, we consider sets of target prices and
stop-loss limits and choose target prices and stop-loss
limits
determine those8
that promise to enhance an expected reward function.
We aim at deriving these price limits. In addition, we
determine the expected target period and the probability
of making and losing money.
In practice,
a frequent used criteriainvestors frequently measure portfolio
performance
criterion
for measuring theof portfolios isas the percentage
return
per unit timeover given period. However,
such athat criterion
leads to many transactions because of it
encourages
small profit-taking
small profits within
a short holding
timeperiod 9(τ0).
and increases transaction costs.10
ClearlyHence, for those reasons, such a
criteria criterion
is not suitablemay be unsuitable
11for retail investors, especially those
who are unable to constantly monitor
trading and additional transaction costs,
their portfolios. 12A discount factor, in contrast,
rules out veryreduces frequent
transactions as it replaces time as the determinant of
holding
timeperiod. This discounted-reward function is
natural 13common incommonly applied to
many financial problems.
This study examines a non-dividend single stock whose price exhibits a regime-switching geometric Brownian motion. We consider sets of stop-loss limits and target prices and determine those that promise to enhance an expected reward function. We aim to derive these limits as well as an expected holding period and probabilities of making and losing money.
Given the current price of a stock, the selling principle
consists of target price and a stop-loss limit. A ‘sell’
decision is made when the price reaches either the target
price or the set stop-loss limit. The main purpose is to
benefit investors. During their financial careers, investors
often pick up weak stocks or purchase it at the wrong time.
Therefore, in both the cases, it is often wise and necessary
to sell such a stock as soon as possible to curtail losses.
In practice, target prices are typically around a gain of
15%–55% and stop-loss limits generally vary from 5% to 20%.
However, it is not a good idea to adopt uniform rules for
booking profits and losses because each stock has its own
characteristics that call for different liquidation
rules.
In practice, investors frequently measure portfolio
performance as the percentage return over given period.
However, that criterion encourages taking small profits
within a short holding period (τ0) and increases transaction
costs. Hence, for those reasons, such a criterion may be
unsuitable for retail investors, especially those who are
unable to constantly monitor their portfolios. A discount
factor, in contrast, reduces frequent transactions as it
replaces time as the determinant of holding period. This
discounted-reward function is commonly applied to many
financial problems.
This study examines a non-dividend single stock whose price
exhibits a regime-switching geometric Brownian motion. We
consider sets of stop-loss limits and target prices and
determine those that promise to enhance an expected reward
function. We aim to derive these limits as well as an
expected holding period and probabilities of making and
losing money.